Singapore Stock Picks 2015

The Stock Picks for 2015 was published in The Edge in Feb 2015. Although this is a much overdue posting, I felt that it is still good to document it for review when the year 2015 is over.

As at 9 Sep 15, 9 out of 10 recommended counters were in RED. The only 1 that’s positive is Sheng Siong Group.

As I have said in Jan 2014, ” Again, I need to caution on investing in these counters blindly or simply ‘buy and hold’. I have illustrated earlier that, if based solely on fundamentals, the probability of getting the counters correct is only 50-50. “

My Market Comments in Forbes

Forbes Articles

Forbes comments

On 3 Feb 2014, an economic analyst wrote an article in Forbes saying that “Singapore’s Bear Market May Have Just Begun”.
I looked at my chart and challenged his views technically. True enough, the market rebounded and turned out as what I have expected.

Just some sharing of my thoughts with you guys.

Cheers and have a good weekend ahead.

Singapore Stock Picks 2014

stock pick 2013

Before we move on to 2014 stock picks, let’s look at the performance of those stocks which were selected by a local research/trading house for the year of 2013. Of the 12 recommended counters, 6 were negative and the rest were positive. Of the negative counters, Biosensors, CDL and CapitaMall Trust were the hardest hit. They ranges -10.56 to -31.84. Of the positive counters, the star performers of the year include Ezion Holding (+58.57%) and M1 (+21.11%).

For me, I would deem the stock picks by local research houses as fundamentally good stocks as at the beginning of the year and it is important to apply technical analysis to these counters to avoid pitfalls and maximise profit. People always ask about recommended stocks to buy for STI, but they forget about timing. The local houses have spent so much resources and research on these counters and have put across their choices, with their reputation at stake. I am sure there must be strong basis on their selection. Fundamentals considerations comprise of expected earning, intrinsic value, potential upside etc. But these criteria are dynamic and no one can guarantee that the expected earning would not change. For example, no one would expect earnings of CDL or other property related stocks would be so badly affected until the implementation of TDSR by MAS in the middle of 2013. Property counters, including REITs were hit. Apply technical analysis will allow one to get away early before the counters took a deep dive. It also reinforces the idea of applying both fundamental (taken care of by the analysts) and technical analysis when one trades, be it long or short term.

The stock picks for 2014 was published by the Sunday Times on 29 Dec 2013. I want to document it for review on 31 Dec 2014. This will also be useful for readers who want to have some reference at any point of the year. Again, I need to caution on investing in these counters blindly or simply ‘buy and hold’. I have illustrated earlier that, if based solely on fundamentals, the probability of getting the counters correct is only 50-50.

Last but not least, I wish everyone good health and a prosperous 2014.

stock pick 2014_

Breakout System

Sometimes it is rather difficult to have the patience to wait for a price pull back. Often, it is within the traders’ psychology not to chase the price upon breakout.

When a trader longs a position at a higher price, it is definitely further away from its support, below which the trader can define the stop-loss. There are 2 options that traders can set the stop-loss, either above or below the true support. The former will expose the trader to higher risk (as it was further away due to the breakout) while the latter will be more likely to be triggered, thereby resulting in losses.

The skill of finding the true / resistance (to take profit) becomes very crucial. An experience trader can actually ignore the indicators by just observing how the price behaves when it is near to the support / resistance. Many times, the indicators give mixed or conflicting signals when used together. True support is the strongest support nearest to the current price.

Having said that, most traders would be so psychologically affected and they would not have the right mindset to participate in subsequent breakouts when the prior attempts failed.

For swing trades that last for a few days to a few weeks, the focus should always be entering near support (for long) or resistance (for short). The detection of the strength of the imminent move should always be intraday. Otherwise, it is always safer to wait for pull backs to initiate trades.

Trading is just like mathematics. Only when the defined risks are small with the probability of winning high, can the overall profit be sustained.

Flexible ‘bamboo’-style value invesment approach

Came across an interesting article by THE EDGE (The week of May 20, 2013), under the section of Personal Wealth. The title of the article :

Asian-style global investing – Capital Dynamics founder and fund manager Tan Teng Boo uses a flexible ‘bamboo’-style value approach towards international equity investing (By Kelvin Tan).

Below is an excerpt (gist) of the article.

‘Bamboo’ approach

To achieve long-term gains, Tan bascially uses a value investing approach with a global macro overlay. Like most value investors, the fund manager evaluates the attractiveness of companies by comparing their long-term intrinsic value and current traded stock prices. Companies which are traded at a deep discount to their intrinsic value are said to offer ‘a good margin of safety’, he says. But for stock-picking in emerging markets, Tan – differing from traditional bottom-up value investors – takes into account macro-economic factors such as GDP growth, inflation rates, interet rate, and politics.

He reasons that using a pure value investing approach in Asia and other emerging-market regions does not work because there are many other external macro factors that influence the price of stocks. “If you invest in the US, you don’t have to worry about capital controls and you don’t have to worry about who will be the next prime minister. If you apply [the] Fishers/Graham [value investing] method in Vietnam, South Africa or Malaysia, you will be dead,” says Tan.

A classic case is Malaysia, where politics is a crucial factor that could impact the prices of stocks, according to the Capital Dynamic founder whose company manages a Bursa Malaysia-listed, closed-ended Malaysia equity fund called Berhad. “If you see a new government the next day, all those existing government-related companies would have been bashed. So, in emerging markets, you cannot take the typical Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett value investment approach because valuations of companies are not just a function of how well they are run. The social and political milieu should also be taken into account,” says, Tan, who describes his value investing approach as “intelligently eclectic”.

Interview with Andrea Unger


Trading Insights From Three-Time Winner Of World Cup Trading Championships Andrea Unger – by Louis Kent Lee and Ong Qiuying (31 Oct 2012)


I have read this article from Shares Investment and felt that the part on risk management is particularly important. Decided to keep a record of this article for reference and as a reminder of proper risk managment.

Invest Fair 2013

The Invest Fair for this year will be held in Aug 2013 at Suntec.

I guess the organisers have not finalised the programme and at the moment, we only know that there are a few speakers. Among them are Roger Montgomery and Hu Li Yang. I have attended a talk by Roger Montgomery and I can say that he is a good speaker and is able to capture his audience well with his very good presentation. Roger has always been a fundamentalist with focus on value investing.

As for Hu Li Yang, he is a famous speaker for the stock market in Asia and beyond. I have read his chinese books and his comments on TV. Hu Li Yang is being looked upon as the father of investment education in Taiwan. His talks are entertaining and he is always able to explain his financial concepts in a easy to undersand manner to the retail investors.

Attending invest fair is good for people who just started out to gain more understaning in terms of investing, investment education. Bascially to gain exposure to the various instrutments. Sometimes you can get some good deals, just like Travel fair or the NATAS fair.

Good to attend if you are a beginner or new to investment or if you would like to attend some free talks in your spare time.

STI on 2 May 13 – Bullish

If you read the finance news below without looking at each market individually, I bet you will be confused.


SINGAPORE, May 2 (Reuters) – Singapore shares touched a five-year high on Thursday, with DBS Group Holdings rising over 4 percent, its biggest daily gain in more than three years after posting a record profit for the first quarter.

The Straits Times Index gained 0.9 percent to 3,401.00, while the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.3 percent.

Shares of DBS, Singapore’s biggest lender, jumped nearly 5 percent to S$17.59, the highest since May 2008. It was trading at S$17.51 at 0435 GMT, on course for its biggest daily climb since April 2010.

DBS reported a record quarterly profit of S$950 million ($770.32 million), up 2 percent from a year earlier, boosted by annuity businesses and stronger capital market activities.

“DBS remains an Outperform and our high-conviction top pick in Singapore banking,” said CIMB Research.

Shares of Genting Singapore Plc rose 4.23 percent to S$1.64, matching a peak in February, after casino operator Las Vegas Sands Corp posted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings on good results in Macau and Singapore.

Genting Singapore is due to report its quarterly earnings after market close.


AFP (2 May)- Asian markets slipped Thursday after US stocks tumbled on the back of weak employment and manufacturing data, as dealers eyed a policy meeting of the European Central Bank later in the day.

Tokyo closed down 0.76 percent, or 105.31 points, at 13,649.04, Seoul fell 0.34 percent, or 6.74 points, to finish at 1,957.21, while Sydney ended 0.70 percent, or 36.2 points, lower at 5,130.0.

Hong Kong fell 0.30 percent, or 68.71 points, to 22,668.30 while Shanghai was down 0.17 percent, or 3.79 points, at 2,174.12, a day after official data showed that manufacturing activity in China slowed last month.

US markets fell Wednesday following the release of separate reports showing that job growth eased to its slowest level in seven months in April and that manufacturing activity had slowed sharply in the same month.

The data came as the Federal Reserve gave a tepid economic outlook at the close of its two-day monetary policy meeting.