Singapore Stock Picks 2014

stock pick 2013

Before we move on to 2014 stock picks, let’s look at the performance of those stocks which were selected by a local research/trading house for the year of 2013. Of the 12 recommended counters, 6 were negative and the rest were positive. Of the negative counters, Biosensors, CDL and CapitaMall Trust were the hardest hit. They ranges -10.56 to -31.84. Of the positive counters, the star performers of the year include Ezion Holding (+58.57%) and M1 (+21.11%).

For me, I would deem the stock picks by local research houses as fundamentally good stocks as at the beginning of the year and it is important to apply technical analysis to these counters to avoid pitfalls and maximise profit. People always ask about recommended stocks to buy for STI, but they forget about timing. The local houses have spent so much resources and research on these counters and have put across their choices, with their reputation at stake. I am sure there must be strong basis on their selection. Fundamentals considerations comprise of expected earning, intrinsic value, potential upside etc. But these criteria are dynamic and no one can guarantee that the expected earning would not change. For example, no one would expect earnings of CDL or other property related stocks would be so badly affected until the implementation of TDSR by MAS in the middle of 2013. Property counters, including REITs were hit. Apply technical analysis will allow one to get away early before the counters took a deep dive. It also reinforces the idea of applying both fundamental (taken care of by the analysts) and technical analysis when one trades, be it long or short term.

The stock picks for 2014 was published by the Sunday Times on 29 Dec 2013. I want to document it for review on 31 Dec 2014. This will also be useful for readers who want to have some reference at any point of the year. Again, I need to caution on investing in these counters blindly or simply ‘buy and hold’. I have illustrated earlier that, if based solely on fundamentals, the probability of getting the counters correct is only 50-50.

Last but not least, I wish everyone good health and a prosperous 2014.

stock pick 2014_

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CDL, Capitaland & Kepland – for week of 22 Apr 13

CDL 19 Apr 13

Capitaland 19 Apr 13

Kepland 19 Apr 13

After the cooling measures announced in mid January this year, our local property stocks have been in the doldrums. Lately, they seems to make a come back. The above chats of CDL, Capital Land and Kepland seems to tell us that the counters have reached their supports and is ready to bounced back. CDL and Capitaland have yet reverse. However, I can see that Kepland is making its way up. Usually for property stocks, they will follow each others. If there is no major incident occurring that will adversely affect the markets, I would foresee that CDL and Capitaland will follow suits and climb like Kepland.

City Development 22 Mar 13

CDL 22 Mar 13

If you take a look at CDL, you will know that it is of utmost importance as a trader / investor to lock in profit at the correct timing. This applies to traders of all time frames and even for long term investors. Those people who had bought into CDL in Nov 12 will have very good returns by end Dec 12. If they did not exit by the first week of Jan 13 and is still holding till now, then they are definately making a paperloss. This will further affect their trading psychology and if the counter continue to drop, say a few dollars, the persons holding the shares will sell it off in panic to confirm the loss. This kind of win-did not exit-lose then exit cycles happen everyday in the markets. Sad but true, we need these people to provide for liquidity and of course, provide profit for those 10% of the traders out there.