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Market Comments (STI) for week of 17 Mar 14

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hkse

STI Daily 14 Mar 14

In my earlier posting on 9 Mar 14, I had mentioned that a false breakout was likely to happen and we needed to observe for 1 to 2 more trading days to confirm this. Indeed, the candlestick appearance didn’t look good on 10 & 11 Mar 14 (after my posting) and the Index fell strongly to close at 3,097 on 12 Mar 13. The drop continued and as at 14 Mar 13, the STI has reached the immediate support of 3,065 (Low of 3,060 and Close of 3,073) on 14 Mar 14. I have asked traders to take profit as early as 28 Feb 14 and reminded again on 9 Mar 14.

With the accurate forecast, I hope you have exited with some profit.

For the coming week, I would expect STI to be weak and consolidate between 3,065 to 3,120. For indicators, they have confirmed a retracement with MACD crossing signal, RSI failure break and volume dropping. If the current support at 3,065 failed, the next support is at 3,030.

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STI’s Correction

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Sometimes, it is rather interesting to see what the reporters wrote. When you read the newspaper it is already too late. Rather useless and to the point of stupidity.

Correction, profit taking, retracement, you name it.

This shows that a stop loss and an exit plan is definately critical.

The question now is where is the support?

Try to understand this – a support is only a support when it is supported. Price action rules.

U.S. Companies That Track Terrorists, Aid Homeland Security and Sell to Law Enforcement

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24/7 Wall St.

78480119America lost its ability to ease into the thought that it was safe again on Monday after the Boston Marathon bombs killed three people and injured more than 100. This is very unfortunate, and for many of us it brings back the concerns and fears of 2001 to 2003. After Boston was hit with dual bombings around the finish line of the marathon, security levels were raised in New York, Washington D.C. and elsewhere. Now new reports have tied in other packages, and a report on Tuesday showed that a suspicious package has been found in LaGuardia Airport in New York City. President Obama has even said that the FBI is investigating this incident as though it is an act of terrorism.

Needless to say, you can bet that airport security and security at public events will be now be alerted and higher. If the trends do manage to escalate, America…

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The Case For $1300 or Even $1200 Gold… It May Actually Be a Good Thing

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24/7 Wall St.

Gold and SilverThe gold bugs are getting squashed and flushed down the drain as gold continues its slide. After breaking the $1500 mark on Friday there are some key calls to consider as gold could get down to $1400, $1300, or even $1200 per ounce.

The big call earlier last week was from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) saying to get out of gold and to short sell gold. The highly influential trading and investment banking firm predicted that gold would end 2013 at $1450 per ounce and that it could sink to $1270 by the end of 2014. The analyst team that made this call even went on to predict that if these price predictions turn out to be correct that the falling gold prices could even be larger and faster than the firm expects.

Our question on this is the pre-trade timing of this. How much gold was…

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Crude Oil Could Fall Below $90 Real Soon Now

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24/7 Wall St.

Oil price fall graphicThe spot price for WTI crude briefly fell to $90.27 this morning and still trades well below yesterday’s closing price of $93.51. The AAA Daily Fuel Gauge reports that the average U.S. pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline sits at about $3.56 today, which is $0.06 a gallon less than it cost a week ago and more than $0.30 a gallon below last year’s price. And all the signals are that the price will continue to fall.

Consumer sentiment fell sharply — and unexpectedly today — and U.S. retail sales were also lower. Part of the reason for the lower retail sales turned out to be lower gasoline sales, even though the price was dropping. U.S. drivers take to the roads less because they don’t have the will, or perhaps the money, to go shopping.

That’s not likely to change next week. Recent demand estimates from both OPEC…

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24/7 Wall St.

GermanyJust when it seemed that the economic data from the European Union could not get worse, new service sector purchasing managers index (PMI) information from Markit shows that the collapse in most countries in the region has accelerated. Even Germany did not dodge the fallout.

The data will open the debate, which now occurs daily, about whether austerity actually closes national deficits or widens them as lack of stimulus pushes gross domestic products into negative territory.

Recall, a PMI measurement of less than 50 signals contraction.

According to Markit:

At 46.5 in March, the final Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index was unchanged on the flash reading, confirming that the rate of decline in activity accelerated for the second month in a row to reach the fastest since last November.

The PMI shows that output has fallen in each of the past 19 months with the sole exception of a marginal increase at the start of…

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Market Comments (HSI / STI) For Week of 1 Apr 2013

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HSI 1 Apr 13

STI 1 apr 13

STI was very near to its upper resistance zone of 3,320 on Thurs 28 Mar 13. However, it was a red candle and indicators did not give any conclusion as the index has been moving sideway for the past few weeks. We will need to wait for price action to confirm a breakout of resitance or continuation of consolidation within a tight zone. Although the bearish divergence has been there for weeks, ultimately it is price action the rules.

HSI performs rather badly and seems to continue falling for the coming week with indicators hinting continuation of downtrend momentum. Its support is currently at 22,185. We need candles to close below this level to confirm a breakdown.

Market Comments (DJI / S&P 500) For Week of 1 Apr 13

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DJI 1 Apr 13

SnP500 1 Apr 13

DJI seems to edge up above its resistance of 14,450 to 14,500. However, the red candle on 28 Mar 13 did not give us conclusive breakout. Volume did not have any significant increase for the past 1 week. We need to observe for 1-2 candles more. If breakout is confirmed, the next resitance is at 14,680 level. For trader who wish to have a quick in and out, you may enter at the point just as DJI breaks the resistance zone (14,500+) and set its stop loss below its recent low within the resistance zone (somewhere slightly below 14,450). This will provide a low risk entry. However, the risk reward ratio is not high as I next resistance is about 14,680.

SnP is currrently at is resistance level of 1,560 +/- 15 pts. CCI is turning up and MACD gives consistant indication. If this resistance does not hold, the next resistance will be at around 1,605.

Somtimes, it is rather dangerous to hear the news that says “S&P set record high” and investors jumped in. This is because the indexes may just hit its resistance that’s around the corner and retrace. I know there are many traders out there waiting to shot the indexes and they have waiting patiently for the past seveal weeks. As such, we need to thread carefully, especially when both DJI and S&P500 has been trending up for the past 1 quarter. The bear may be just looming around the corner.

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24/7 Wall St.

200325572-001The journey to any gambling and entertainment mecca is an experience that even non-gamblers often want to put in their travel bucket list. Located off the Chinese coast on the South China Sea, the Asian version of Las Vegas is no different. For gambling, shopping, dining, entertainment and more, Macau is the place to be.

This former Portuguese colony is one of the two special administrative regions of the Peoples Republic of China, the other being Hong Kong, which is just 37 miles to the northwest. In 2002, the Macau government ended the former monopoly gambling system and six casino operating concessions were granted.

The gaming analysts at Deutsche Bank A.G. (NYSE: DB) feel that high-speed rail is changing Macau’s visitor profile. The new visitor is more likely to have come from further away, spend a night in a hotel and spend more on shopping. The biggest data…

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City Development 22 Mar 13

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CDL 22 Mar 13

If you take a look at CDL, you will know that it is of utmost importance as a trader / investor to lock in profit at the correct timing. This applies to traders of all time frames and even for long term investors. Those people who had bought into CDL in Nov 12 will have very good returns by end Dec 12. If they did not exit by the first week of Jan 13 and is still holding till now, then they are definately making a paperloss. This will further affect their trading psychology and if the counter continue to drop, say a few dollars, the persons holding the shares will sell it off in panic to confirm the loss. This kind of win-did not exit-lose then exit cycles happen everyday in the markets. Sad but true, we need these people to provide for liquidity and of course, provide profit for those 10% of the traders out there.