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Market Comments (DJI / HSI / STI) For Week of 25 Mar 13

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DJ 22 Mar 13

HSI 22 Mar 13

STI 22 Mar 13

Dow Jones has met with bulls and bears fighting with indecision for the past one week. Resistance level of 14,450 – 14,500 still holds and it has demostrated how nicely the candles stick to the levels verifying the resistance zone which was first predicted on 8 Mar 13 in my earlier postings. The CCI is coming down and MACD has crossed finally (lagging). In view of the tough fight between the bulls and bears, we need to wait for candles that shows distinctly whether it breaks out of resistance zone or retrace below it.

Hang Seng was performing badly. As forcasted last week, it has broken down its previous support and is currently at its next support of 22,185. These two supports were pinpointed accurately. I foresee further downside for HSI in the coming week.

STI is still consolidating sideways and has been so for the past few weeks. It is bounded by resistance of 3,320 and support of 3,230. Bearish divergance still maintained and its direction will only be known when it either breaks the resistance of 3,320 or support of 3,230.

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24/7 Wall St.

Ben Bernanke Official PortraitThe less things change, the more time everyone has to speculate about what might happen if things do change. As expected, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC today announced that it is leaving the overnight lending rate unchanged at 0.25% or less and that it will continue its $85 billion per month asset purchase program.

The vote was 11 to 1, with only Fed Governor Elizabeth George voting against. George’s “no” vote was based on here that “continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.”

The Fed’s economic projections got a pretty good workover, though, since the publication of the December projections. The projected GDP growth for 2013 has been lowered from a range of 2.3% to 3% to a new range of 2.3% to 2.8%. Estimated GDP growth for 2014 has dropped from…

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24/7 Wall St.

BankThe restructuring of the financial services industry, which has ranged from 30,000 layoffs at Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) to cuts at Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS), has reached multinational HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE: HBC). According to the Financial Times:

Stuart Gulliver, HSBC’s chief executive, said when he announced annual results last week that he would “fixate on costs” over the coming year and promised to find a further $1 billion of annual savings in 2013.

The job cuts target has still to be fixed but people close to the bank suggested up to 5,000 staff could go as part of the $1 billion savings plan. If HSBC maintained the recent rate of staff cuts to cost savings, the number would be closer to 10,000.

Shares of HSBC are down fractionally in premarket trading, to $54.40…

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24/7 Wall St.

108680884One of the most substantial concerns about the Chinese economy is that inflation in securities, food prices and real estate could create bubbles. The central government has hoped to keep this under control with mortgage rules. Recent data show that has not worked.

Bloomberg reports:

China’s new home prices posted the broadest advance since December 2011, a test for new Premier Li Keqiang as he seeks to prevent a bubble without damping economic growth.

Prices climbed in 62 cities of the 70 the government tracks in February from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. Beijing prices jumped 5.9 percent from a year earlier, the biggest since February 2011, while they advanced 8.1 percent in Guangzhou, the most since January 2011.

Brand new efforts to cool the market go into effect this month. However, they may be no more effective than the slew of such efforts…

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Market Comments (DJI / HSI / STI) For Week of 18 Mar 13

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DJI 15 Mar 13 Daily

HSI 15 Mar 13 Daily

STI_15 Mar 13 Daily

Dow Jones has meet the resistance of 14,450 – 14,500. You may see that in the resitance zone, there are 2 doji and 1 red candle formed. At last, you are looking at some indecision of the bulls and bears after 7 straight days of making new high. Though the CCI is coming down, the MACD has yet to cross. That’s why you can’t rely on indicators alone to make a decision. Based on market forces, the DJI has met with a resistance. To confirm a reversal, you will need to wait to see the development of candles to ensure that there is a turnaround. But I can say that the Index is indeed weaken. To what extend? Well that depends on when the maket maker / big boys showhand and take profit. The day is near.

Hang Seng was badly depresssed and need a rebound desperately. It made a good attempted on 8 Mar 13 but was halted by some factors. Hence, the new resitance is its previous high of 23,270. It is currently at its support of 22,521. Though showing bullish divergence, I would say the HSI is still pretty weak and make go down further to support of 22,185.

STI is still moving sideway. Bounded by resistance of 3,320 and support of 3,230. Bearish divergance has developed and it would be good for the index to correct,probably together with the DJI. After all, the Index has been raising since mid Nov 2012. The diretion of STI can only be known when it either break the resistance of 3,320 or support of 3,230 in the immediately term.
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Rowsley

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Rowsley 13 Mar 13

This counter looks pretty interesting. Has climbed up pretty fast from 9 cents in last Dec 12 till about 47 cents today. Five times ! This is a penny stock to begin with and technical analysis usually do not go well with penny stock which has low volatility and volume initially. I guess, to catch such a counter, you will need to apply fundamental analysis such as intrinsic value, competitive advantage, all the financial ratios etc. Still, Penny stocks are subject to manipulation. Hence, it is not so simple.

Markets Comments (DJI / STI / HSI )

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Dow Jones closed at 14,447 (high of 14,448) on 11 Mar 13. It is reaching its resistance zone of 14,450 +/- 50 pts soon. I would expect DJI to have some reaction in this zone. The reaction can be either no movement, slow down, reverse or even false break out with some long spike candles or doji.
The VIX is showing that the index is overly overly bought. Let’s watch how the index develops for the rest of the week.

STI – As at now (12 MAr 13, 10.30am), STI is at 3,315 (high 3,316). It is also reaching resistance 3,320-3,340 pretty soon. It would be beautiful if both DJI and STI are reacting to the resistance zone at the same time.

Hang Seng – It is making a slow recovery. The HSI will not look good and will be badly affected if DJ is to correct/retrace soon. Its recovery will be stopped and probablly the HSI will be hit right back to its support zone or the previous low before the slight recovery.

VIX Hits Almost 6 Year Lows, Complacency Replaces Fear

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24/7 Wall St.

Stock Split ImageThe Volatility Index, AKA the VIX, just hit a 52-week low. Make that a multiyear low, all the way back to April of 2007. Is the “fear index” showing a market that is overly bought and ripe for a correction? It may just be signaling that we are in the midst of one major rally that can keep running and running. The move we are seeing is being confirmed by the iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (NYSEMKT: VXX). This exchange-traded note is also at a 52-week low.

Some market observers may start to say that this alone may be marking some seriously overbought territory for the broad stock market. 2013 has been a great year for stocks with record inflows for the first two months of the year. The problem is that as the VIX gets lower and lower it signals extreme complacency. The good news for the bulls…

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Dow Jones 8 Mar 13 (Daily)

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DJI I 8 Mar 13 Daily

Dow Jones has been bullish since the start of the year without and significant retracement. Perhaps it is time for profit taking soon. I would think that there is a strong resistance at level 14,450 +/- 50 points. The index has surpass its channel. If it meets with resistance at level 14,450 +/- 50 points and resisted, it may come back into the channel and perform a good retracement. Let’s watch out for it !