Market Comments (STI) for week of 10 Mar 2014

STI Daily 7 Mar 14

STI has broken its resistance of 3,120 on 6 & 7 Mar 2014. The resistance (3,120) has been well held for the last 11 trading days starting 19 Feb 2014.

Currently, both the RSI and volume is high, but experience losing of strength. MACD is positive but upside strength weakened. The trend is bullish, but considering all factors, it is not a strong entry as compared to the one on 11 Feb 2014, which I have mentioned in my 7 Feb 2014’s posting.

The Index has been on the up trend for the last 22 trading days. I will observe for 1 to 2 more trading days to ensure no false breakout. Traders may wish to enter/ re-enter the trade upon a pullback. As conservative traders, it will be good to take partial profit still, if you have not done so. The immediate support is at 3,065. The next target will be forecast when it is confirmed not a false breakout.

Market Comments (STI) for 28 Feb 14

STI Daily 27 Feb 14

After a beautiful recovery starting from 4 Feb 14, the STI is currently at resistance of 3,100 – 3,120. I would expect the Index to take a breath and consolidate for a while before testing 3,120 again. Looking at Dow Jones peaking and HSI also begins its consolidation, it will be sometime before the Indexes gain their strength to climb higher grounds.

Traders may take some profit now.

Market Comments (STI) for 7 Feb 2014

SGX

STI Daily 6 Feb 14

STI has broken its 1st support on 4 Feb 14 with a low of 2,953. As the index did not continue to head towards its 2nd support of 2,900 – 2,920 for the time being, we can assume that the Index is taking a rest. Currently, we can see that it is trying its best to go above 2,990 (support turn resistance). Once 2,990 is broken and the Index stays above it for a few trading days, we can say that the Index is supported. It will be good if this coincides with MACD reaching its bottom or crossing its signal line. Once this is established and if possible, wait for a retracement back near to the support of 2,990, Traders may go in for bottom fishing with a tight stop loss.

However, if 2,990 is not broken or the Index does not hold above for a reasonable period of trading days, then we can expect market consolidation to continue with no direction. The index will hover between 2,920 to 2,990.

photo credit: citron_smurf via photopin cc

Market Comments (STI) for Jan 2014

STI Daily 27 Jan 14

As mentioned in my Dec 13’s post, STI resistance was 3,200. The index had reached its high of 3,187 on 2 Jan 2014 due to window dressing and thereafter made its way down.

The 2 gaps formed in the last 2 trading days as well as its candlestick pattern showed the fierceness of the descent. MACD showed rejection at zero and just started to turn down. This confirmed that STI has begun its momentum down and more to come.

There exist a strong support at 2,990 and 2,980. This is also a psychological barrier level and we are likely to see some market reaction either with a rebound or a sideway pattern before moving on to its new direction. If this level can’t hold, we are looking at the next support at 2,920 – 2,900. Going to 2,900 is rather remote but it has happened before during extreme market conditions.

With the Lunar New Year around the corner, there will be less volume and traders will be extra cautious with many considering to liquidate their positions.

After Note:
Monday (27 Jan)’s closing saw STI dived to 3,025, which coincided with a recent low in mid Dec 13 prior to the window dressing. There will some reaction here and indeed on Tuesday (28 Jan), we saw price bumped up to 3,062. But looking at the momentum, the outlook is not positive.The new resistance is at the region of 3,155.

Singapore Stock Picks 2014

stock pick 2013

Before we move on to 2014 stock picks, let’s look at the performance of those stocks which were selected by a local research/trading house for the year of 2013. Of the 12 recommended counters, 6 were negative and the rest were positive. Of the negative counters, Biosensors, CDL and CapitaMall Trust were the hardest hit. They ranges -10.56 to -31.84. Of the positive counters, the star performers of the year include Ezion Holding (+58.57%) and M1 (+21.11%).

For me, I would deem the stock picks by local research houses as fundamentally good stocks as at the beginning of the year and it is important to apply technical analysis to these counters to avoid pitfalls and maximise profit. People always ask about recommended stocks to buy for STI, but they forget about timing. The local houses have spent so much resources and research on these counters and have put across their choices, with their reputation at stake. I am sure there must be strong basis on their selection. Fundamentals considerations comprise of expected earning, intrinsic value, potential upside etc. But these criteria are dynamic and no one can guarantee that the expected earning would not change. For example, no one would expect earnings of CDL or other property related stocks would be so badly affected until the implementation of TDSR by MAS in the middle of 2013. Property counters, including REITs were hit. Apply technical analysis will allow one to get away early before the counters took a deep dive. It also reinforces the idea of applying both fundamental (taken care of by the analysts) and technical analysis when one trades, be it long or short term.

The stock picks for 2014 was published by the Sunday Times on 29 Dec 2013. I want to document it for review on 31 Dec 2014. This will also be useful for readers who want to have some reference at any point of the year. Again, I need to caution on investing in these counters blindly or simply ‘buy and hold’. I have illustrated earlier that, if based solely on fundamentals, the probability of getting the counters correct is only 50-50.

Last but not least, I wish everyone good health and a prosperous 2014.

stock pick 2014_

Market Comments (STI) for Year Ending 2013

STI daily 31 Dec 13

To make the story complete, I need to revisit my comments on 12 Dec 13. Below is a summary of what happened to STI :

The analysis was accurate that STI rebounded from 12 Dec 13 onwards. I have illustrated what is true support and indicators are lagging. Though the window dressing finally came after 12 Dec 13 with much excitement, the immediate resistance of 3,200 was not broken by 31 Dec 13.

Market Comments (STI) for Dec 13

STI 12 Dec

The STI has been moving sideways and non-trending since 3rd Oct till 11 Dec 13. This is clearly reflected in the ADX(14), where the indicator remained below 20 for a nearly 2 and a half months. Although December is a month for window dressing, it has yet to show signs of excitement. I would think that the green candle on 12 Dec 13 is an indication of it being temporary supported at 3025, given that there is a true support at this level. It is likely that the index will rebound from there. Although -DI is currently above +DI, but don’t forget indicators are lagging.

The summary of STI’s performance for the whole year has been captured in the above chart. Nothing spectacular with most of the time being trapped between 3,277 and 2,990. The immediate resistance is at 3,200 and as at 12 Dec 13, STI is at 3,059. We shall see if there is any window dressing coming along that will boost the index to back to 3,200. However, for STI to climb 140 points within the remaining 2 weeks before the year ends, it seems to be rather challenging.

STI for week of 26 Aug 13

STI_daily_27Aug

STI_Weekly_27Aug

The STI continues to drop and broken the support of 3065 – 3080 after a few attempts. The next support is the 3,000 psychological support. From the weekly chart, it seems that STI has broken the long term uptrend line and is on its way down. From the momentum of the weekly chart, breaking of the 3,000 mark soon is definitely possible.

Update on 28 Aug 13
The day’s low was at 2,990. The down momentum is unstoppable. STI will be down for a long time to come. Look at the next supports.